24, 2182, will be the most significant single date in terms of a potential impact, with an impact probability of 0.037 percent. Specifically, researchers estimate that Sept. "We've never modeled an asteroid's trajectory to this precision before." Indeed, the data from OSIRIS-REx allows researchers to "test the limits of our models and calculate the future trajectory of Bennu to a very high degree of certainty through 2135," said study lead Davide Farnocchia, of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), in a statement. This is all part of NASA's Planetary Defense group, whose sole purpose is to discover and monitor asteroids and comets that might pose a risk to Earth.ĭata collected by OSIRIS-REx gave researchers an opportunity to test their models and calculate when Bennu would be most likely to hit Earth. "The OSIRIS-REx mission has provided an extraordinary opportunity to refine and test these models, helping us better predict where Bennu will be when it makes its close approach to Earth more than a century from now."Īs Salon previously reported, the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft also made headlines for collecting samples on Bennu, which scientists believe may have had water on its surface earlier in its history. "We carry out this endeavor through continuing astronomical surveys that collect data to discover previously unknown objects and refine our orbital models for them," said Kelly Fast, program manager for the Near-Earth Object Observations Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. Using NASA's Deep Space Network and state-of-the-art computer models, researchers were able to further minimize any uncertainties about Bennu thanks to the observations made by NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, which is now en route to return to Earth after studying Bennu up close. Yet the news about the updated estimate isn't of note due to the revised probability, but because the technology used to calculate it is believed to be the most precise estimate of an asteroid's future trajectory ever calculated. In fact, it is one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system, though its likelihood of hitting Earth is still pretty slim. NASA discovered Bennu, a carbonaceous asteroid about 500 meters in diameter, in 1999, and has been keeping track of it ever since. Bennu's estimated chance of hitting Earth prior to the year 2300 is now 1 in 1,750 - slightly greater than the previous probability of 1 in 2,700, but still quite low. This week, scientists published an updated estimate related to the trajectory of this particular asteroid of concern, Bennu, in the journal Icarus. That's partly because we are getting better at spotting and calculating asteroid trajectories, but also because NASA is soon to test technology that could divert a threatening asteroid decades in advance of impact. Scientists are using NASA’s Osiris-Rex spacecraft to keep an eye on the spacecraft.If the thought of an extinction event–level asteroid hitting Earth keeps you up at night, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has relatively good news for you: the chances of asteroid Bennu striking Earth are higher than previously thought, but probably not high enough to lose sleep over. Per the AP, these odds are slightly higher than the 1-in-2,700 chance that the asteroid had before.Doctor Strange knows what I’m talking about. So if you roll the dice 1,750 times, there’s one time where this asteroid would hit us. Right now, there is a 1-in-1,750 chance the asteroid will hit Earth, AP reports. “We shouldn’t be worried about it too much,” said Davide Farnocchia, a scientist with NASA, told The Associated Press.So while they’re greater than they were, they’re still low. Recently, scientists suggested that the asteroid might have a higher chance of hitting Earth than originally thought. ![]() Per The Associated Press, scientists have been monitoring Bennu, which will continue to fly through space for the next 200 years. That’s at least based on what scientists know now. NASA’s first look: Tiny asteroid is studded with bouldersīennu and another asteroid, (29075) 1950 D, remain the two most worrisome asteroids for Earth, according to Earth Sky.
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